Macro disturbances combined with Indonesian policies may lead to fluctuating nickel prices [Institutional Commentary]

Macro side, US tariff shocks impacted the commodity sector, with nickel and stainless steel under downward pressure.

Refined nickel: Macro shocks led to nickel prices being under pressure, but the fundamentals were moderate, coupled with cost support, limiting the downside for nickel prices.

Nickel sulphate: Macro factors indirectly weakened the cost support for nickel sulphate, and future prices may not improve.

Nickel ore: Currently, ore-side support remains strong, with PNBP implementation potentially offsetting the impact of HPM decline, thus limiting the downside for nickel prices.

Nickel iron: Pressure in the nickel iron segment is emerging, which may lead to a collapse in stainless steel costs.

Stainless steel: Stainless steel demand is weak, and future prices may be in the doldrums.

SHFE nickel 2505 reference range 118,000-128,000 yuan/mt. SS 2505 reference range 12,400-13,000 yuan/mt.

Trading strategy: For SHFE nickel, temporarily hold off, for stainless steel, go short with light positions.

Uncertainty risks: Geopolitics, US Fed policy, domestic economic recovery, Indonesia policy